Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93db…ce23 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%23W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$38
politics 23% −$8
sports 17% −$7
crypto 13% −$11
culture 6% −$1
economics 4% −$3
finance 3% +$1
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 59 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 112 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.8%
all 134 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses23 / 111
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage106d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 97¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $62 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $69 −$3 -4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $159 −$3 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 14 $24 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $57 $0 +1%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $115 −$2 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 09 $67 −$2 -4%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $188 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $169 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $311 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $195 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 +1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $48 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $282 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $186 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $169 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $223 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $235 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $45 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $68 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $57 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $44 47m
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $62 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 8h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 8h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $55 15h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $66 16h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $69 23h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $49 24h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 31h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $49 31h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $49 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $57 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $58 42h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 43h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $27 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $54 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 97¢ $24 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $24 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $67 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $63 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.45 · official $43.45 (match) · 528 history records