Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93dd…2f33 sports 370 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized +$199 · open −$224
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%181W / 186L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day90.3pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days+$156
14 days+$171
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$67
other 3% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 31% -7.8%
≤30d 235 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 35% -8.1%
≤90d 367 -10.2% -18.8% 49% 32% -8.3%
all 367 -10.2% -18.8% 49% 32% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 32% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 22% -17.1%
15% -33.7% 16% -25.1%
20% -40.2% 10% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$686
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$224
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses181 / 186
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions3
Markets (closed)367 / 370
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day90.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Inaki Montes 52¢ 100¢ $306 $585 +$279 (+91%)
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna Thiago Seyboth Wild 72¢ 98¢ $72 $98 +$25 (+35%)
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna Juan Manuel La Serna 15¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-83%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Sandro Kopp 50¢ $214 $0 −$214 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $795 −$222 -28%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $2,161 +$227 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $965 +$27 +3%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $333 +$7 +2%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $218 −$118 -54%
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Wilson Leite Jun 26 $7 −$7 -97%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 26 $272 −$52 -19%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $17 +$3 +15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $1,813 +$92 +5%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Jun 26 $322 +$10 +3%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $298 −$18 -6%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $718 +$77 +11%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $437 +$118 +27%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $336 +$30 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $16 −$3 -20%
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 26 $132 +$81 +61%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Amandine Hesse vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Targu Mures (Doubles): Ajdukovic/Kalender vs Latinovic/Vrbensky Jun 25 $79 −$24 -30%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 25 $193 +$7 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen Jun 25 $207 −$41 -20%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 25 $166 +$16 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Andreozzi/Guinard vs Harrison/Skupski Jun 25 $113 −$98 -87%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $101 +$4 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 25 $64 +$6 +9%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 25 $25 −$5 -19%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Valentin Basel Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $68 −$53 -78%
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 25 $19 −$5 -28%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $26 −$11 -43%
ITF Tarvisio: Sofia Rocchetti vs Lea Boskovic Jun 24 $11 −$6 -55%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $208 +$47 +23%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $60 −$5 -8%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 23 $43 +$17 +39%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 23 $98 −$26 -27%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $135 $0 +0%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $262 −$37 -14%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $74 −$14 -20%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $261 +$100 +38%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Jun 23 $23 −$8 -35%
ITF Gdansk: Laura Hietaranta vs Amarissa Kiara Toth Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $29 +$1 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Otto Virtanen Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $18 −$3 -18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $384 −$54 -14%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $131 −$31 -24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $33 −$23 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 23¢ $5 17m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 48¢ $29 19m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 47¢ $10 19m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 48¢ $29 19m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 30¢ $6 20m
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 19¢ $4 26m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 64¢ $13 27m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 64¢ $13 27m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 37¢ $15 27m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 37¢ $8 27m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 59¢ $12 29m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 59¢ $12 29m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 61¢ $37 30m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 61¢ $6 30m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 48¢ $10 31m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 53¢ $11 31m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 48¢ $19 31m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 32¢ $7 36m
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 79¢ $16 36m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 33¢ $13 36m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 33¢ $7 36m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 46¢ $28 41m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 46¢ $9 41m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 65¢ $26 45m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 30¢ $12 47m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 31¢ $6 48m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 47¢ $10 49m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 54¢ $33 49m
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 13¢ $3 52m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 55¢ $33 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $686.20 · official $686.20 (match) · 3500 history records