Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

93 0x93e1…15ae other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$61 (+10%) realized +$62 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$148per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+4.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+15.2%	+4.2%	67%	33%	+0.9%
≤30d	3	+15.2%	+4.2%	67%	33%	+0.9%
≤90d	3	+15.2%	+4.2%	67%	33%	+0.9%
all	3	+15.2%	+4.2%	67%	33%	+0.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.2%	33%	+0.9%
10%	-5.7%	33%	-8.8%
15%	-14.8%	33%	-17.6%
20%	-23.2%	0%	-25.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$5 · ×5.74 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×11.49 per $1 lost it wins $11.49

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$158

Realized+$62

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$148

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	86¢	86¢	$159	$158	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 23	$164	−$5	-3%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$159	+$5	+3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$110	+$50	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$160	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	51¢	$159	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$164	12h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	95¢	$164	12h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$159	14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$110	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.93 · official $157.93 (match) · 7 history records