Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93e2…1b8c other 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$167 (-1%) realized −$153 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%76W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$150
14 days−$135
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$53
crypto 18% −$135
politics 14% −$153
sports 11% +$259
economics 8% −$2
world 7% +$6
tech 3% −$222
finance 1% +$34
weather 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +2.7% -7.1% 36% 34% -29.4%
≤30d 64 +1.1% -8.6% 39% 38% -30.1%
≤90d 76 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 42% -14.3%
all 140 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 44% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 44% -10.6%
10% -20.2% 24% -19.2%
15% -27.9% 16% -27.0%
20% -35.0% 13% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$30 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$740
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses76 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)140 / 160
History coverage242d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 95¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 50¢ 46¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 74¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $84 $70 −$14 (-16%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 57¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Colombia 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$5 -23%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 +$13 +650%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$31 +1521%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $44 +$6 +13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 +$12 +596%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 24¢ $3 54m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $5 54m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 55m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 55m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 56m
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 56m
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 57m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 59m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $10 59m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 52¢ $16 13h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 13h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 24h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 53¢ $5 24h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $5 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 24h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 80¢ $20 42h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $10 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $739.51 · official $739.51 (match) · 579 history records