Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x93e4…4e41 world 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$19 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$11
politics 23% +$2
other 19% +$1
tech 13% +$3
sports 4% −$6
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -25.1% -32.3% 60% 0% -30.9%
all 15 -2.9% -12.2% 80% 20% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 20% -7.7%
10% -20.6% 7% -16.6%
15% -28.2% 7% -24.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage154d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 89¢ 69¢ $29 $22 −$6 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $3 −$1 -40%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Mar 27 $15 +$1 +9%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $19 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $48 −$4 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Feb 25 $116 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February? Feb 25 $67 +$2 +4%
US issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026 Feb 25 $55 +$11 +20%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $167 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $43 +$17 +39%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $59 +$11 +19%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 31 $36 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $37 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $29 1h
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 94¢ $28 78d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL Yes 0¢ $2 79d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $3 84d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 89¢ $35 87d
US strike on Cuba by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $31 88d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY Yes 92¢ $15 88d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 85¢ $33 91d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $19 100d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 101d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 101d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL No 97¢ $38 101d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 97¢ $38 102d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 BUY Yes 100¢ $116 118d
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 118d
US issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026 SELL No 98¢ $65 118d
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February? BUY Yes 96¢ $67 120d
US issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $55 120d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 100¢ $167 128d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $43 142d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 142d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 100¢ $36 144d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $59 149d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.57 · official $77.89 (match) · 31 history records