Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
93 0x93e5…3b8d sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$218 (+8%) realized +$217 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days+$94
14 days+$171
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$142
other 21% +$30
crypto 10% +$35
world 3% −$40
finance 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +18.7% +7.4% 61% 61% -5.1%
≤30d 41 +18.6% +7.3% 61% 61% -1.9%
≤90d 46 +15.6% +4.6% 61% 61% -2.9%
all 47 +15.5% +4.5% 62% 62% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 62% -2.4%
10% -5.5% 60% -11.8%
15% -14.6% 60% -20.3%
20% -23.0% 45% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$44 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized+$217
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions8
Markets (closed)47 / 56
History coverage298d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 60¢ $135 $134 −$1 (-0%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 34¢ 36¢ $97 $101 +$3 (+4%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 56¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 65¢ 64¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $161 +$69 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $71 −$1 -2%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $41 +$38 +93%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $46 +$27 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $148 −$145 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$23 +115%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$36 +119%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $117 −$96 -82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $57 −$56 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 +$33 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $46 +$121 +262%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $122 −$120 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $81 +$66 +81%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$57 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$10 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $75 +$31 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $86 +$55 +64%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $162 +$79 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $75 +$86 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -71%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $30 +$17 +56%
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? Apr 03 $34 −$34 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $25 +$10 +38%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $30 +$18 +58%
Solana all time high before 2026? Oct 11 $299 +$35 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 39m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $51 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $76 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $10 7h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $20 7h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 37¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $30 7h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $48 10h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $31 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $30 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $46 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $30 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $31 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 25¢ $15 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 23¢ $15 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 25¢ $15 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $15 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $15 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $15 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $41 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 55¢ $10 33h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 33h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $15 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $376.95 · official $376.95 (match) · 150 history records