Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93e9…4d47 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-27%) realized −$79 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$21
other 24% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -28.6% -35.4% 50% 50% -41.6%
≤30d 8 -28.6% -35.4% 50% 50% -41.6%
≤90d 8 -28.6% -35.4% 50% 50% -41.6%
all 8 -28.6% -35.4% 50% 50% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 50% -41.6%
10% -41.6% 38% -47.2%
15% -47.2% 25% -52.3%
20% -52.4% 12% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$31 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Over 82¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$15 +73%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $40 +$9 +21%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $34 +$16 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.33 · official $69.33 (match) · 18 history records