Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93ec…a0c9 sports 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$4
other 22% −$4
politics 21% −$4
economics 6% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
culture 5% −$5
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 200 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 187
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)200 / 201
History coverage169d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 95¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $22 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 17 $33 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 12 $59 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $27 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 10 $131 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $26 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 09 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 07 $320 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $222 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $151 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $31 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 25 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL No 94¢ $22 12d
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY No 95¢ $22 13d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $29 25d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $29 25d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $30 36d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $30 37d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $25 96d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $25 96d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $36 96d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $36 96d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $24 96d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $24 97d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $29 97d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $30 97d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $28 97d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $28 97d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $23 97d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $23 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? SELL No 96¢ $36 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $35 98d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $23 98d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $23 98d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $22 98d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $22 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 95¢ $33 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $33 98d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $36 98d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $36 99d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $23 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.98 · official $25.98 (match) · 844 history records