Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93ed…7e69 sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-5%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%28W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day97.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$304
sports 37% −$36
world 10% −$5
other 6% −$2
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -18.4% -26.1% 26% 24% -51.5%
≤30d 106 -18.4% -26.1% 26% 24% -51.5%
≤90d 106 -18.4% -26.1% 26% 24% -51.5%
all 106 -18.4% -26.1% 26% 24% -51.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.1% 24% -51.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.2% 20% -56.1%
15% -39.7% 19% -60.4%
20% -45.6% 16% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses28 / 78
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day97.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $65 −$63 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 $0 -4%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $4 $0 -6%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 $0 -4%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 25 $5 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 25 $3 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 25 $5 $0 -5%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 $0 -4%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $2 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus Jun 25 $5 $0 -2%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 $0 -9%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? Jun 25 $4 −$2 -40%
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 25 $6 $0 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $14 −$1 -4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 -4%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 25 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03 Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 25 $6 $0 -6%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $11 +$2 +22%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4 +$1 +21%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 +$8 +147%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $3 $0 +18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -42%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $5 −$1 -14%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 24 $6 −$1 -14%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 -8%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 $0 -6%
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Jun 24 $2 $0 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $3 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 72¢ $3 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 42¢ $3 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 58¢ $3 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $3 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 74¢ $3 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $3 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 87¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records