Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93ed…a4cb sports 423 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$322 (-1%) realized −$271 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%194W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$63
14 days+$265
30 days−$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$641
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -8.1% -16.9% 51% 51% -11.8%
≤30d 159 -0.9% -10.3% 48% 48% -12.0%
≤90d 399 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 45% -12.0%
all 421 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 45% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 45% -11.7%
10% -19.9% 43% -20.2%
15% -27.6% 39% -27.9%
20% -34.7% 32% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$47 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$271
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses194 / 227
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions2
Markets (closed)421 / 423
History coverage98d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 34¢ 40¢ $52 $60 +$8 (+16%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 47¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $73 +$80 +110%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $84 +$28 +34%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $62 −$4 -7%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $104 −$103 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $81 +$45 +56%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $37 +$17 +46%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $126 −$125 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$44 +43%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $99 +$46 +46%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $55 +$100 +181%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $54 +$9 +17%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $201 −$199 -99%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $73 +$71 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $125 +$37 +29%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $124 +$18 +14%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $71 −$20 -28%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $107 +$43 +40%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 12 $82 +$36 +44%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-3.5) vs AM Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+1.5) Jun 11 $56 +$66 +118%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$68 +134%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $70 −$63 -90%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $80 +$78 +98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $91 +$58 +64%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $64 +$70 +110%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $116 +$47 +40%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $111 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $51 +$96 +188%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $94 +$59 +63%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $74 +$67 +91%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $66 +$59 +89%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Pl Jun 09 $44 +$30 +68%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $201 +$92 +46%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $81 +$53 +66%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $56 +$104 +185%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $47 −$46 -98%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 08 $43 −$42 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 32¢ $4 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 49¢ $56 29m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 99¢ $154 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 46¢ $73 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $112 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 72¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $74 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 34¢ $53 2h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Dominion Nation 49¢ $57 2h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ $62 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 42¢ $22 19h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 68¢ $104 21h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $127 21h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 65¢ $77 22h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 47¢ $4 22h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 99¢ $55 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 67¢ $37 23h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 61¢ $62 23h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 68¢ $14 23h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 64¢ $51 23h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 99¢ $145 24h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 68¢ $101 24h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $145 25h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 67¢ $99 25h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner SELL HyperSpirit 99¢ $155 27h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 34¢ $55 28h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 10¢ $10 30h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 11¢ $2 30h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 12¢ $2 30h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $15 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.47 · official $60.47 (match) · 782 history records