Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:56:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
93 0x93f0…b16a other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,277 (-32%) realized −$2,277 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$424per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$2,493
sports 2% +$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 53% -38.0%
≤30d 17 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 53% -38.0%
≤90d 17 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 53% -38.0%
all 17 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 53% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 53% -38.0%
10% -4.8% 53% -43.9%
15% -14.0% 47% -49.4%
20% -22.4% 41% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$462 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$424
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $99 −$5 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $113 +$87 +76%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$93 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $127 +$73 +57%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $56 −$54 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $98 +$88 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $536 −$532 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $452 +$115 +26%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 +$23 +187%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $263 +$137 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $180 +$90 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$129 +250%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,582 −$2,576 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,461 +$139 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $95 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $99 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $113 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $55 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $195 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $127 37h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $49 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $186 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $98 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $536 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $467 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $400 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $263 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $180 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,582 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,461 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records