Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93f4…c2cb sports 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$116 (+1%) realized +$274 · open −$158
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%60W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$70
other 19% +$154
crypto 6% −$31
politics 5% −$138
world 4% +$1
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.0% -0.5% 33% 33% -16.8%
≤30d 64 -1.9% -11.3% 41% 27% -7.8%
≤90d 134 +1.9% -7.8% 45% 34% -8.9%
all 134 +1.9% -7.8% 45% 34% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 34% -8.9%
10% -16.6% 32% -17.6%
15% -24.7% 27% -25.6%
20% -32.1% 25% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized+$274
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses60 / 74
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions4
Markets (closed)134 / 138
History coverage82d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $250 $417 +$167 (+67%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 85¢ 92¢ $135 $147 +$12 (+9%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $250 $83 −$167 (-67%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $47 $52 +$4 (+9%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 19¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$29 -57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17 −$13 -73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$26 +257%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $44 −$2 -5%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $45 +$9 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $6 −$5 -83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $405 +$15 +4%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $59 −$50 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $16 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $304 −$26 -9%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $542 −$13 -2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka May 31 $24 −$6 -26%
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea May 31 $51 +$1 +2%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Indonesia vs Nepal May 31 $23 −$12 -52%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 29 $20 −$2 -11%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $45 −$22 -50%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $269 +$10 +4%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 27 $13 −$8 -62%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 May 27 $5 +$3 +48%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $55 −$40 -73%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? May 26 $623 +$225 +36%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? May 26 $124 +$1 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 26 $3 +$6 +163%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $3 +$8 +248%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10 +$8 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann May 25 $4 +$10 +242%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $8 +$18 +222%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 25 $316 −$5 -2%
T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia May 24 $1 +$2 +146%
Jiujiang: Mei Yamaguchi vs Hayu Kinoshita May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Cook Islan May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 24 $18 −$13 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu May 24 $16 −$11 -67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $23 −$23 -100%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 24 $23 −$10 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 81¢ $49 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 87¢ $31 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 87¢ $20 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 87¢ $28 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 87¢ $7 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 12¢ $29 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $3 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $0 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $0 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $3 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $1 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $22 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $5 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $6 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $9 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 41h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 66¢ $29 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 69¢ $12 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 56¢ $10 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 67¢ $6 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 77¢ $28 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $10 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 82¢ $22 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 85¢ $8 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 85¢ $8 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 85¢ $8 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Ireland $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.70 · official $699.70 (match) · 850 history records