Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93f6…4814 sports 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$69,858 (-17%) realized −$68,002 · open −$1,856
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%44W / 97L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,856per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$6,894est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4,135
14 days−$13,031
30 days−$30,502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$64,464
crypto 1% −$5,489
other 1% −$4,591
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -33.2% -39.6% 29% 29% -41.4%
≤30d 23 -65.6% -68.8% 13% 13% -72.2%
≤90d 141 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 30% -25.9%
all 141 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 30% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 30% -25.9%
10% -32.1% 30% -33.0%
15% ← realistic here -38.7% 30% -39.5%
20% -44.7% 30% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$3,722) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,382 vs −$2,737 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$68,002
Unrealized−$1,856
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses44 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$6,894
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage73d
Avg bet$2,856
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner the bug 45¢ 0¢ $1,859 $2 −$1,856 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $2,082 −$2,053 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,996 −$1,961 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,399 −$1,377 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $1,827 −$1,800 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $1,322 +$2,066 +156%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,250 −$1,228 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,991 +$2,218 +111%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $796 −$791 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,667 −$2,630 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $719 −$702 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $1,425 −$1,425 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,078 −$1,072 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,328 −$2,325 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,640 −$2,600 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,011 +$2,649 +132%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $2,313 −$2,275 -98%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 11 $2,121 −$2,090 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3,547 −$3,485 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,635 −$2,587 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3,976 −$3,958 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $1,347 −$98 -7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $498 −$487 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,546 −$2,491 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $10,038 −$9,970 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner May 13 $4,527 −$4,524 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 13 $4,687 −$4,668 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 13 $5,385 −$5,376 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $5,779 −$5,701 -99%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner May 12 $2,787 −$2,746 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 12 $2,799 +$7,641 +273%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $4,746 −$4,655 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $3,063 +$6,927 +226%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $3,529 +$3,382 +96%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 11 $4,359 −$4,287 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 11 $4,240 −$4,171 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 11 $2,899 −$2,840 -98%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoff May 11 $1,062 −$1,058 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $3,948 −$3,883 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $3,661 −$3,604 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $2,932 −$2,885 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $6,521 +$5,599 +86%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 10 $1,506 +$5,987 +398%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 10 $1,506 +$5,030 +334%
LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner May 09 $2,664 −$2,611 -98%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner May 09 $3,041 −$2,982 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 09 $441 −$435 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte - Map 2 Winner May 09 $3,952 −$3,869 -98%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner May 09 $4,357 +$5,158 +118%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 09 $896 −$894 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 - Map 2 Winner May 09 $1,757 −$1,717 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 49¢ $87 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 49¢ $77 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 48¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 49¢ $499 1h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 43¢ $1,224 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $2,076 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $952 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,043 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $209 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $35 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $11 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $14 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $17 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $47 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $1,051 6d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $1,827 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $3,388 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $31 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $20 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $20 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $20 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $2 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $273 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 39¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.07 · official $2.07 (match) · 1903 history records