Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x93f9…8688 politics 446 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+2%) realized +$63 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%244W / 199L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$20
14 days+$29
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$17
world 31% +$113
other 16% −$58
sports 8% −$33
tech 2% +$20
finance 2% +$8
culture 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$6
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.7% -5.3% 57% 52% -0.5%
≤30d 67 -3.2% -12.5% 48% 34% -8.6%
≤90d 119 +6.2% -3.9% 47% 35% -4.4%
all 443 +6.0% -4.1% 55% 42% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 42% -7.6%
10% -13.3% 33% -16.4%
15% -21.6% 27% -24.5%
20% -29.3% 24% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses244 / 199
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)443 / 446
History coverage226d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $7 $5 −$2 (-35%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$3 -29%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -45%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Jun 20 $6 −$5 -90%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 20 $8 +$1 +15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +61%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $26 +$18 +67%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -11%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $13 −$3 -21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $14 +$7 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $14 +$14 +98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -45%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $12 +$5 +39%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$3 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +53%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$3 +19%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +160%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $8 −$5 -56%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -77%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $6 +$10 +156%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -21%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -30%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -65%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $3 $0 -9%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $3 −$2 -55%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $1 +$2 +151%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $3 +$1 +26%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? May 31 $3 −$1 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 9h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $2 12h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $11 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No $1 2d
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 17¢ $3 2d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 18¢ $3 2d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 18¢ $3 2d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 19¢ $4 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $3 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $5 2d
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $5 2d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $5 2d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 29¢ $5 2d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 27¢ $5 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 38¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.32 · official $14.32 (match) · 1362 history records