Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93fa…c8be other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$182 (-14%) realized −$224 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$317
14 days−$246
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$135
sports 10% −$1
world 4% −$26
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -36.1% -42.2% 29% 29% -38.6%
≤30d 24 -21.1% -28.7% 38% 38% -26.1%
≤90d 24 -21.1% -28.7% 38% 38% -26.1%
all 24 -21.1% -28.7% 38% 38% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 38% -26.1%
10% -35.5% 33% -33.2%
15% -41.7% 29% -39.6%
20% -47.4% 21% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$36 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage20d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 81¢ $99 $142 +$43 (+43%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $54 +$25 +47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$6 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 −$1 -4%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $94 −$91 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $55 −$26 -47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $132 +$120 +91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $21 −$11 -54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$35 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 +$27 +107%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$64 +156%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $72 +$40 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $33 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $50 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $41 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $24 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $26 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $94 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $29 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $252 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $59 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.96 · official $172.23 · 51 history records