Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
93 0x93fb…e794 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-5%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$14
politics 20% +$3
world 16% −$20
sports 8% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +168.6% +143.0% 100% 100% +143.6%
≤30d 2 +168.6% +143.0% 100% 100% +143.6%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 44% 44% -8.5%
all 9 +0.1% -9.4% 44% 44% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 44% -8.5%
10% -18.1% 44% -17.3%
15% -26.0% 33% -25.3%
20% -33.3% 22% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage54d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +64%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$28 +273%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to Score May 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 13 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Nice win Coupe de France? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -96%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 14h
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY Yes 71¢ $5 40h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 37d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 37d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 41d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 42d
Will Nice win Coupe de France? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 50d
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $10 50d
Trump approval Up or Down this week? BUY Down 67¢ $10 51d
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10 53d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 53d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 53d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.26 · official $34.26 (match) · 65 history records