Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x93fd…7e2f other 113 markets active 3h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$44,839 (+56%) realized +$44,767 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%31W / 537L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$710per market
Trades / day91.2pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$1,547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$6,986
politics 2% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-82.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 485 -89.3% -90.3% 2% 2% -84.7%
≤30d 538 -82.5% -84.1% 5% 4% -57.5%
≤90d 568 -80.1% -82.0% 5% 5% -48.8%
all 568 -80.1% -82.0% 5% 5% -48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -82.0% 5% -48.8%
10% ← realistic here -83.7% 4% -53.7%
15% -85.3% 4% -58.2%
20% -86.7% 4% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -71% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
26.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,313 vs −$222 · ×5.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,547
Realized+$44,767
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses31 / 537
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)568 / 113
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$710
Trades / day91.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 32¢ 37¢ $566 $655 +$89 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $475 $655 +$179 (+38%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $268 $144 −$124 (-46%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $39 $47 +$8 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $127 $46 −$80 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jun 24 $168 −$57 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 24 $32 −$50 -154%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 24 $7 −$11 -160%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 24 $83 −$77 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026 Jun 24 $1 −$73 -6978%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jun 24 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 24 $666 −$694 -104%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 24 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026 Jun 24 $117 −$126 -108%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 24 $1,860 −$1,853 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 202 Jun 24 $106 −$105 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 24 $278 −$481 -173%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 24 $209 −$1,147 -549%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Jun 24 $472 −$474 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 24 $33 −$26 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 24 $68 +$44 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jun 24 $167 −$162 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 24 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Jun 24 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $165 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $145 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $50 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $39 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $42 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 4h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 4h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $51 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $120 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 5h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $60 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $47 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $90 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $59 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,547.38 · official $1,556.83 (match) · 3500 history records