Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x9401…cc9f
other · 11 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$1 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)2 / 11
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%
Chart Positions 9 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 46¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+132%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$3 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 −$7 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 81% +$6
sports 19% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 32h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $8 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 32h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -34.7%
≤30d 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -34.7%
≤90d 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -34.7%
all 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 50% -34.7%
10% -41.3% 50% -41.0%
15% -46.9% 50% -46.7%
20% -52.1% 0% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.08 · official $37.08 (match) · 19 history records