Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9401…e8a8 other 11 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-29%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -29.9% -36.6% 36% 36% -36.4%
≤30d 11 -29.9% -36.6% 36% 36% -36.4%
≤90d 11 -29.9% -36.6% 36% 36% -36.4%
all 11 -29.9% -36.6% 36% 36% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 36% -36.4%
10% -42.7% 36% -42.5%
15% -48.2% 36% -48.1%
20% -53.3% 27% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records