Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x9402…21fe sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$573 (+43%) realized +$583 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$685
7 days+$681
14 days+$813
30 days+$813
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$550
crypto 28% +$180
other 16% +$216
world 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.2% +6.1% 33% 25% +58.9%
≤30d 13 +40.6% +27.2% 38% 31% +68.5%
≤90d 13 +40.6% +27.2% 38% 31% +68.5%
all 20 +46.5% +32.5% 40% 35% +58.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.5% 35% +58.3%
10% +19.9% 35% +43.2%
15% +8.3% 35% +29.3%
20% -2.3% 35% +16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +95% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$43 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$583
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage202d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $143 +$434 +303%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 −$40 -79%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$361 +352%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 +$7 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $202 −$200 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $99 +$225 +226%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $103 −$4 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$131 +321%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 12? Dec 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 5? Dec 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on December 2? Dec 04 $60 +$184 +307%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 4? Dec 04 $40 +$66 +166%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 4? Dec 04 $50 −$21 -42%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 3? Dec 04 $20 +$54 +272%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $577 36m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 SELL Over $0 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Over $11 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 BUY Over $10 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $51 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $51 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 16h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $79 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $108 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $101 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 23h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $10 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $10 32h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $324 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $99 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 55¢ $99 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 54¢ $103 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 87¢ $172 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $5 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $5 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $5 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $5 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.58 · official $43.75 · 50 history records