Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9402…e673 sports 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$32 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%196W / 436L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$289
7 days−$271
14 days−$268
30 days−$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$72
other 30% −$76
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -95.8% -96.2% 2% 2% -68.8%
≤30d 222 -87.5% -88.7% 8% 7% -51.7%
≤90d 632 -42.7% -48.2% 31% 29% -28.4%
all 632 -42.7% -48.2% 31% 29% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.2% 29% -28.4%
10% -53.1% 22% -35.2%
15% -57.6% 18% -41.5%
20% -61.8% 14% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses196 / 436
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)632 / 407
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 632 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 84¢ $92 $84 −$8 (-9%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Over 98¢ 95¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 79¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+20%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Cabo Verde 79¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 79¢ 58¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 389 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-24? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -202%
PSV vs. PEC Zwolle: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will HNK Gorica win on 2026-04-22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Gwangju: Liam Broady vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Rome: Cezar Cretu vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-04-21? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -203%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-25? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -203%
SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta United FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-20? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -203%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-04-20? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -202%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -202%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -203%
Club Tijuana vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Querétaro FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Randers FC win on 2026-04-23? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
CF Monterrey vs. Club Puebla: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Racing Club vs. CA Barracas Central: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Gangwon FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 215.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
RFK Akhmat Groznyi vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US Avellino 1912 win on 2026-04-24? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Rubin Kazan win on 2026-04-22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pharco FC vs. El Gouna SC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Banfield win on 2026-04-20? Jun 15 $2 −$4 -202%
Club Necaxa vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $7 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $8 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 23¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 97¢ $9 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Nigeria 93¢ $6 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Nigeria 93¢ $2 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Nigeria 93¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Nigeria 93¢ $8 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Nigeria 71¢ $14 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Peru 40¢ $4 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Iraq 86¢ $17 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Arthur Rinderknech 74¢ $22 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 76¢ $38 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.62 · official $119.62 (match) · 3500 history records