Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9406…9223 other 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%20W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$27
14 days−$47
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$33
politics 29% −$28
sports 23% −$31
finance 4% −$5
economics 4% −$5
world 4% −$8
crypto 3% −$2
tech 3% $0
culture 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 79 -1.0% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 155 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 173 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses20 / 153
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage105d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $117 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $350 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $152 −$2 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $57 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $62 −$1 -2%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $67 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $308 −$3 -1%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $930 −$2 -0%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $376 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 16 $66 −$4 -6%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $76 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $113 −$5 -4%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $391 −$2 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $61 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 11 $58 −$3 -5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $134 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $41 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $37 −$2 -4%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $56 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $46 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $125 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 5h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 96¢ $57 6h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $0 12h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $18 12h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $39 12h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $60 12h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $60 18h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 89¢ $57 18h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 92¢ $60 24h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $61 25h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $61 31h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $27 31h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $28 38h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 39h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 47h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $60 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 2d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $56 2d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $57 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $67 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $68 3d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.70 · official $47.70 (match) · 742 history records