Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:00:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
94 0x9412…9ae4 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$1
world 36% +$2
politics 14% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 0% -8.8%
all 33 +1.9% -7.8% 36% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 3% -8.8%
10% -16.6% 3% -17.5%
15% -24.7% 3% -25.5%
20% -32.1% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×8.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.9 per $1 lost it wins $10.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage298d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 24 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 09 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $2 $0 +10%
Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5? Sep 06 $29 $0 +2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $2 $0 -15%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Polish preside Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $1 $0 +10%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $74 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29? Aug 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 44h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $22 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $10 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $32 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $11 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $22 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $31 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $14 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $14 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $7 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $25 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 93¢ $31 26d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $36 267d
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $8 267d
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $8 267d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $9 267d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records