Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
94 0x9412…730e sports 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$107 (+2%) realized +$207 · open −$100
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%86W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$299
7 days+$375
14 days+$458
30 days+$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$40
other 33% +$50
world 4% +$22
crypto 2% +$61
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 52% +8.8%
≤30d 31 +6.5% -3.7% 58% 55% +11.3%
≤90d 36 +2.9% -6.9% 58% 56% +9.0%
all 154 -5.0% -14.1% 56% 55% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 55% -6.3%
10% -22.3% 51% -15.3%
15% -29.8% 43% -23.4%
20% -36.7% 34% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$29 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses86 / 68
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage202d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 2 Royal Never Give Up 63¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$71 +140%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $101 +$84 +83%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $102 +$111 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$18 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $168 +$95 +57%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $71 −$70 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $101 +$89 +88%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$148 +146%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $100 +$18 +18%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$51 +165%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $30 +$6 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $51 −$29 -58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$75 +74%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $30 +$8 +27%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 14 $30 +$8 +26%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $50 +$24 +48%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 01 $67 +$20 +29%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-2.5) Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5 Mar 15 $20 −$11 -57%
Naji Marshall: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 14 $40 +$26 +64%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 13 $10 +$19 +186%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 13 $30 +$14 +47%
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 13 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5) Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Kanye tweet again by February 28? Mar 02 $46 +$17 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY Royal Never Give Up 64¢ $51 1h
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY Royal Never Give Up 61¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 41¢ $51 4h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $102 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $101 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 32h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 34h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 43¢ $71 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $67 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 64¢ $166 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 45¢ $41 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 41¢ $20 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 32¢ $41 36h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 37h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 40¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 53¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 52¢ $51 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 58¢ $51 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 66¢ $49 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $51 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 259 history records