Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
94 0x9416…5a15 crypto 419 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 154d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,328 (-21%) realized −$18,193 · open −$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate46%188W / 222L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,076now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 154d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$1,151
world 19% +$1,757
other 18% −$1,130
politics 10% −$2,231
sports 5% −$1,476
tech 2% −$187
culture 2% +$87
economics 1% −$323
finance 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -23.0% -30.3% 35% 23% -9.7%
≤30d 51 -25.4% -32.5% 37% 18% -4.9%
≤90d 75 -34.7% -40.9% 31% 17% -6.7%
all 410 -12.5% -20.9% 46% 29% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 29% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 18% -20.3%
15% -35.4% 13% -28.0%
20% -41.7% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$74 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$1,076
Realized−$18,193
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses188 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions9
Markets (closed)410 / 419
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$211
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $400 $490 +$90 (+23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 15¢ 16¢ $107 $111 +$4 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 80¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 45¢ 24¢ $200 $106 −$94 (-47%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 86¢ 87¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $46 $78 +$32 (+70%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 64¢ 24¢ $128 $49 −$79 (-62%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $100 $6 −$94 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $252 −$96 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $496 +$902 +182%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $322 +$529 +164%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $286 −$282 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $949 −$478 -50%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $476 +$149 +31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $56 −$33 -59%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $50 −$24 -48%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $75 −$13 -17%
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Jun 10 $102 −$88 -87%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 10 $144 +$69 +48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $251 +$11 +5%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $29 +$1 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $408 −$400 -98%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $103 −$96 -94%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $700 −$31 -4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $3,048 −$225 -7%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $100 −$16 -16%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,755 +$584 +33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,100 −$270 -24%
Exact Score: Denmark 2 - 1 Ukraine? Jun 07 $102 −$93 -91%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $1,292 −$916 -71%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $5,091 +$248 +5%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 07 $1,309 −$238 -18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 07 $100 −$5 -5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $103 −$12 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $803 +$6 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $21 −$11 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $300 +$1 +0%
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? Jun 05 $98 −$31 -31%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $100 −$45 -46%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $10 −$4 -40%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $3,340 +$1,109 +33%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6,915 +$1,852 +27%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 3? Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $52 +$44 +85%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $46 −$31 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 02 $78 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $107 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,142 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $200 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $800 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $100 6h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 86¢ $100 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $52 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $200 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $400 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,046 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $352 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 96¢ $851 6h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 64¢ $42 6h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 64¢ $9 6h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 64¢ $13 21h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 64¢ $64 27h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $33 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $160 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $1 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $28 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $6 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $23 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $80 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 32¢ $64 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $104 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,075.59 · official $1,075.59 (match) · 3500 history records