Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x9417…8440 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,204 (+29%) realized +$870 · open +$334
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,577
7 days+$1,642
14 days+$2,189
30 days+$2,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$1,902
other 35% +$611
culture 0% +$10
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +53.8% +39.2% 100% 100% +42.1%
≤30d 8 +59.9% +44.6% 100% 100% +44.9%
≤90d 8 +59.9% +44.6% 100% 100% +44.9%
all 8 +59.9% +44.6% 100% 100% +44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.6% 100% +44.9%
10% +30.8% 100% +31.0%
15% +18.2% 88% +18.4%
20% +6.6% 50% +6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$274 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$783
Realized+$870
Unrealized+$334
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions8
Markets (closed)8 / 16
History coverage11d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffs Mentality Monster 55¢ 100¢ $399 $725 +$325 (+82%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 0¢ 66¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 12¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $803 +$674 +84%
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs D family (+1.5) Jun 27 $397 +$291 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $810 +$334 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $608 +$278 +46%
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (+1.5) Jun 25 $258 +$65 +25%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $388 +$237 +61%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $250 +$249 +100%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $124 +$61 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 0m
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 72¢ $10 2m
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 8m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 8m
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 12¢ $5 8m
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL D family 100¢ $1,477 51m
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 55¢ $405 51m
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs D family (+1.5) SELL D family 99¢ $688 54m
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 67¢ $270 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 68¢ $137 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 38¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 33¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 45¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 45¢ $159 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 45¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 45¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 45¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 45¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 45¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 45¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 47¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 47¢ $72 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 45¢ $24 2h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 45¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY D family 45¢ $1 2h
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs D family (+1.5) BUY D family 55¢ $114 3h
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs D family (+1.5) BUY D family 55¢ $103 4h
Game Handicap: Mentality Monster (-1.5) vs D family (+1.5) BUY D family 60¢ $24 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $782.97 · official $782.97 (match) · 57 history records