Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9419…c114 crypto 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,310 (-11%) realized −$1,287 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%62W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days−$724
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$1,991
sports 10% +$158
other 3% −$249
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -26.3% -33.3% 29% 29% -2.4%
≤30d 31 -42.0% -47.5% 19% 19% -39.2%
≤90d 258 -20.2% -27.8% 24% 22% -26.4%
all 258 -20.2% -27.8% 24% 22% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 22% -26.4%
10% -34.7% 21% -33.5%
15% -41.0% 21% -39.9%
20% -46.8% 21% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$40 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$1,287
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses62 / 196
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)258 / 263
History coverage43d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $230 $232 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $152 +$133 +87%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$2 -8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $254 +$313 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$123 +233%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $132 +$128 +97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $274 −$270 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $69 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $98 −$93 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $103 −$97 -94%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 22 $89 −$85 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 22 $36 +$49 +136%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $52 −$46 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12PM ET May 22 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1PM ET May 20 $103 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10AM ET May 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 20 $97 +$65 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8AM ET May 20 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 20 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2AM ET May 20 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $98 −$93 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10AM ET May 19 $89 −$84 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 19 $27 −$14 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9AM ET May 19 $53 +$132 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3PM ET May 15 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET May 15 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 15 $99 +$117 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 15 $48 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 15 $37 +$69 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 15 $55 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 15 $29 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $71 −$28 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 15 $52 +$81 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 15 $53 +$97 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $86 +$76 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $233 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $285 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $152 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $568 18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $254 21h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $274 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 26h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 26h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $132 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $101 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $175 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $63 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $95 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $103 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.98 · official $276.98 (match) · 543 history records