Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9419…4201 other 400 markets active 1h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$588 (+3%) realized +$537 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%149W / 245L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$50
14 days+$9
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% +$1,027
other 40% −$248
world 9% −$369
sports 5% +$18
tech 1% +$9
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -35.3% -41.4% 38% 32% -30.5%
≤30d 47 -34.6% -40.8% 36% 32% -19.2%
≤90d 67 -18.9% -26.6% 33% 30% +27.9%
all 394 -11.1% -19.6% 38% 33% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 33% -7.7%
10% -27.3% 29% -16.5%
15% -34.3% 24% -24.6%
20% -40.7% 20% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$23 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$537
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses149 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)394 / 400
History coverage412d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government? Yes 20¢ 38¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+86%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $10 $31 +$21 (+210%)
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 76¢ 76¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $6 $27 +$21 (+350%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 58¢ 53¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + USR + UDMR? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-72%)
Will Mircea Geoană be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$6 +154%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $8 +$2 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $8 $0 +4%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +52%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +26%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -92%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $7 −$4 -50%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +74%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$7 +106%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $254 +$93 +37%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $36 −$30 -82%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $17 −$14 -84%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 10 $59 +$59 +100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -40%
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Romania? Jun 08 $15 +$19 +131%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR? May 26 $92 −$91 -99%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $48 +$152 +317%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $89 +$123 +139%
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $189 +$334 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 76¢ $28 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 16h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 17h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 17h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 80¢ $8 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $7 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $6 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $4 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 18¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL No 99¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.35 · official $152.35 (match) · 2260 history records