Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x941a…ef40 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 30% +$2
politics 10% +$1
economics 5% $0
finance 4% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.8% -10.2% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 15 -0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.3%
all 31 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage370d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $69 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $14 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $73 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $67 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 31 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jul 02 $23 $0 -1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 24 $22 $0 +2%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $32 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $36 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $15 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $4 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $30 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.52 · official $26.52 (match) · 119 history records