Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:18:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x941a…1a8f other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$361 (+8%) realized +$361 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$875per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$206
sports 12% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.3% -3.8% 80% 40% -2.6%
≤30d 5 +6.3% -3.8% 80% 40% -2.6%
≤90d 5 +6.3% -3.8% 80% 40% -2.6%
all 5 +6.3% -3.8% 80% 40% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 40% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 20% -11.9%
15% -21.4% 0% -20.4%
20% -29.1% 0% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$149 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.24 per $1 lost it wins $3.24
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$361
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$875
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $503 +$128 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $558 −$149 -27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,113 +$94 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,197 +$115 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 100¢ $616 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 100¢ $16 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 79¢ $503 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 60¢ $192 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $217 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $558 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $576 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $288 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $143 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $144 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $904 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,113 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,087 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $110 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records