Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x941b…7659 crypto 427 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (249 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,752 (-10%) realized −$5,752 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%203W / 550L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day248.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,240
weather 0% −$52
other 0% +$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (249 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 510 -77.0% -79.1% 11% 10% -68.1%
≤30d 753 -49.1% -53.9% 27% 24% -40.7%
≤90d 753 -49.1% -53.9% 27% 24% -40.7%
all 753 -49.1% -53.9% 27% 24% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover248.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.9% 24% -40.7%
10% ← realistic here -58.3% 18% -46.4%
15% -62.3% 17% -51.6%
20% -66.0% 16% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$72 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,752
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses203 / 550
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)753 / 427
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$134
Trades / day248.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 753 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $208 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $208 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records