Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x941e…9775
sports · 1148 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$5,485 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$119 · open −$1,418
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,074
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$1,418
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses618 / 424
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions110
Markets (closed)1042 / 1148
History coverage113d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 110 History 1042 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$1,636
14 days+$1,224
30 days+$1,311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $279 $349 +$71 (+25%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $289 $328 +$39 (+13%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 68¢ $149 $316 +$167 (+112%)
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 23¢ $438 $285 −$153 (-35%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 11¢ $557 $266 −$290 (-52%)
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 21¢ $459 $260 −$199 (-43%)
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? Yes 74¢ 95¢ $180 $232 +$52 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $130 $164 +$34 (+27%)
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 13¢ $380 $163 −$217 (-57%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $111 $117 +$6 (+5%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 29¢ $204 $111 −$93 (-45%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $119 $89 −$30 (-25%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 61¢ 94¢ $56 $86 +$30 (+53%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $111 $78 −$32 (-29%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $111 $77 −$34 (-30%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $59 $63 +$4 (+7%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Yes 57¢ 13¢ $249 $57 −$192 (-77%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 30¢ 53¢ $31 $55 +$24 (+79%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 89¢ $45 $53 +$8 (+19%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 87¢ 93¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 86¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 60¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $9 +$3 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$5 -25%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $21 +$79 +376%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$313
sports 22% −$1,797
world 19% −$133
finance 11% −$421
politics 6% +$17
tech 5% +$1,715
crypto 2% −$499
culture 0% +$127
economics 0% +$13
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 61¢ $5 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 54¢ $5 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $10 5h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 43¢ $5 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $5 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $5 6h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $9 6h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 85¢ $5 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 59¢ $5 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 74¢ $5 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $10 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 40¢ $5 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $5 11h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $5 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $10 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $5 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $10 12h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $5 22h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $20 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $10 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 23h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 +17.3% +6.1% 54% 48% +19.4%
≤30d 469 +1.7% -8.0% 56% 51% -8.7%
≤90d 893 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 51% -15.3%
all 1042 -2.6% -11.9% 59% 49% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 49% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 36% -20.0%
15% -28.0% 26% -27.7%
20% -35.1% 17% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,073.59 · official $4,112.32 (match) · 3500 history records