Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
94 0x9421…0c05 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%22W / 3L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1
crypto 30% $0
finance 13% $0
world 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 14% -9.5%
≤30d 25 +1.5% -8.2% 88% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 25 +1.5% -8.2% 88% 4% -9.3%
all 25 +1.5% -8.2% 88% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.23 per $1 lost it wins $7.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses22 / 3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)25 / 34
History coverage43d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $204 $204 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $139 $139 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 80¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Wolf" in May? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Jun 05 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 28? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 05 $11 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs against All authority (BO3) - CCT Europe Serie May 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 18? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $139 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $204 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $193 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 89¢ $1 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $193 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? BUY No 97¢ $1 5d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $14 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $195 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $195 16d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 16d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $4 24d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 25d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 26d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 26d
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 BUY No 96¢ $4 26d
Will Trump say "Wolf" in May? BUY No 95¢ $1 26d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $3 26d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs against All authority (BO3) - CCT Europe Serie BUY Ursa 94¢ $2 26d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $12 27d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $3 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.30 · official $398.30 (match) · 94 history records