Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
94 0x9425…0b83 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$846 (-13%) realized −$856 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip
Net edge+58%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$536
14 days−$536
30 days−$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$107
other 14% −$511
crypto 14% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+57.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +78.0% +61.1% 50% 41% -18.1%
≤30d 46 +78.0% +61.1% 50% 41% -18.1%
≤90d 46 +78.0% +61.1% 50% 41% -18.1%
all 47 +74.3% +57.7% 49% 40% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.7% 40% -22.0%
10% +42.6% 36% -29.5%
15% +28.8% 36% -36.3%
20% +16.2% 26% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +164% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$103 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$856
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage124d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 0¢ 22¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $243 −$240 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $120 +$52 +43%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $172 +$29 +17%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 +$27 +180%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $122 +$103 +85%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $13 −$1 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $392 −$89 -23%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $79 +$170 +217%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $981 −$976 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $611 +$369 +60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $547 +$66 +12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $395 +$151 +38%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $137 +$68 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $199 +$147 +74%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $47 +$33 +70%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $171 +$64 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $80 +$91 +114%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 −$3 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $124 −$121 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $34 +$94 +278%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $53 +$80 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $106 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $91 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $43 +$78 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $169 −$79 -47%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 −$37 -74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $217 −$168 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 14 $273 −$273 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 23¢ $10 1m
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $27 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $243 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 86¢ $169 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 48¢ $74 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $120 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $120 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $172 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $51 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $224 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $122 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 16¢ $12 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $13 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 5¢ $11 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 51¢ $207 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $290 2d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $249 2d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $79 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $981 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $645 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $335 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $611 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $547 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $546 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $395 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.68 · official $9.71 (match) · 97 history records