Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

94 0x9429…fd87 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$59 (+10%) realized +$60 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +81% what you keep after slip

Net edge+81%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%11W / 16L

Drawdown78%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit13%portable

Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$26

7 days−$54

14 days−$69

30 days−$10

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)+81.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+77.3%	+60.4%	50%	50%	-29.8%
≤30d	13	+30.4%	+18.0%	38%	38%	-12.3%
≤90d	25	+87.6%	+69.7%	40%	40%	-5.4%
all	27	+100.5%	+81.4%	41%	41%	-1.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+81.4%	41%	-1.5%
10%	+64.0%	41%	-10.9%
15%	+48.2%	41%	-19.5%
20%	+33.7%	41%	-27.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +100% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +167% → late +39% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$17 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage

Net worth$24

Realized+$60

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses11 / 16

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)27 / 31

History coverage91d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown78%

Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+5%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-7%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-100%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$30	+$28	+93%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals	Jun 15	$20	+$27	+134%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals	Jun 15	$3	+$22	+712%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$30	+$24	+79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$82	−$80	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 07	$5	−$5	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 04	$15	−$6	-37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02?	Jun 02	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 31	$10	−$10	-100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$61	+$69	+114%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	May 06	$41	+$59	+146%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	May 06	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Apr 28	$10	+$15	+146%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	Apr 28	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?	Apr 15	$20	+$29	+146%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Apr 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Apr 14	$5	+$5	+108%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?	Apr 08	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 19	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 19	$15	−$15	-100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17?	Mar 18	$32	−$32	-100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 18	$40	+$23	+58%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 18	$25	$0	-1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?	Mar 18	$5	+$26	+524%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	1h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	34¢	$15	11h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	14h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	14h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	16h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	50¢	$10	20h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	20h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	53¢	$20	20h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	42¢	$20	34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$30	34h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	12¢	$3	35h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$30	39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$61	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07?	BUY Yes	32¢	$5	8d
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	SELL Yes	37¢	$10	11d
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02?	BUY No	10¢	$5	13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	57¢	$43	18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	34d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	BUY No	40¢	$20	41d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	BUY No	40¢	$20	41d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	41d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	BUY Yes	40¢	$10	48d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	62d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	8¢	$10	62d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?	BUY Yes	40¢	$20	64d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	64d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.76 · official $23.81 (match) · 61 history records