Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9434…d8d8 culture 64 markets active 2d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy culture specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate63%40W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$131
14 days−$174
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 52% +$33
sports 27% −$183
world 19% +$108
other 1% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -36.8% -42.8% 36% 36% -70.1%
≤30d 47 -6.5% -15.4% 64% 30% -28.5%
≤90d 63 +0.9% -8.7% 63% 30% -12.3%
all 63 +0.9% -8.7% 63% 30% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 30% -12.3%
10% -17.4% 27% -20.7%
15% -25.4% 22% -28.3%
20% -32.7% 14% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses40 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage66d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$6 +72%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $20 +$26 +129%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $29 +$27 +93%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $12 +$18 +152%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $92 −$92 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $15 +$34 +228%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$1 -15%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -7%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 08 $2 −$2 -85%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 08 $22 +$4 +19%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $10 +$8 +81%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 08 $15 +$6 +37%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -94%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $22 $0 +2%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 05 $8 +$1 +7%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? Jun 04 $38 +$2 +6%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m? Jun 04 $38 $0 +1%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 31m? Jun 04 $11 $0 +3%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 61m and 67m? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 04 $18 +$6 +32%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +22%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -48%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 31 $16 +$1 +6%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 31 $61 −$39 -65%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 23m a May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m? May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m? May 31 $33 +$1 +2%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4.5m and 5m? May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 31 $11 +$11 +97%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $55 +$6 +11%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? May 18 $43 $0 +1%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? May 18 $11 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $1 40h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $2 2d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics 72¢ $1 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 58¢ $1 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 54¢ $1 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $3 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 77¢ $2 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 77¢ $2 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 77¢ $1 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $38 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $3 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $3 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $1 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $2 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $15 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.71 · official $56.71 (match) · 371 history records