Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x943c…cea8 crypto 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+2%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate74%132W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 123d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -1.9% -11.2% 73% 23% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -1.9% -11.2% 73% 23% -9.7%
≤90d 74 -2.3% -11.6% 72% 23% -9.7%
all 179 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 41% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 41% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 22% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 15% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses132 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage123d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $62 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $81 −$67 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $122 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $111 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $121 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $91 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $122 −$16 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$16 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $124 −$28 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $61 −$18 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $62 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$40 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $111 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $92 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $82 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $81 −$12 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $81 −$13 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $45 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $33 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $31 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $13 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $29 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $33 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $63 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.38 (match) · 575 history records