Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

94
0x943c…1d17
world · 134 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$20,221 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,348 · open −$946
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$23,315
Realized−$19,348
Unrealized−$946
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses60 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)112 / 134
Avg bet$2,316
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 22 History 112 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$149
14 days+$442
30 days−$22,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $14,672 $13,535 −$1,137 (-8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $3,849 $4,057 +$209 (+5%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 49¢ 59¢ $2,377 $2,890 +$513 (+22%)
Spain snap election called in 2026? No 62¢ 64¢ $1,172 $1,206 +$34 (+3%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 27¢ 26¢ $324 $306 −$18 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $254 +$54 (+27%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 93¢ $164 $186 +$22 (+14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $151 $160 +$9 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $153 $146 −$7 (-5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $91 $99 +$7 (+8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 33¢ 10¢ $191 $61 −$130 (-68%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $60 +$15 (+32%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 60¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $22 $24 +$1 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-62%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 68¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+96%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 72¢ 0¢ $490 $0 −$489 (-100%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? No 67¢ 0¢ $2,221 $0 −$2,221 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? No 65¢ 0¢ $9,122 $0 −$9,122 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $372 +$38 +10%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 07 $1,729 +$111 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $2,112 +$288 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $4,504 +$758 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $3,120 −$753 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,298 +$110 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $1,405 −$950 -68%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $18,950 −$10,525 -56%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? May 24 $1,500 −$1,431 -95%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? May 24 $46 +$14 +29%
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? May 24 $138 +$31 +23%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? May 19 $5,739 −$4,109 -72%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 17 $5,518 −$467 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 16 $583 +$60 +10%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? May 15 $2,914 −$2,914 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 15 $2,221 −$2,221 -100%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? May 08 $949 +$55 +6%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? May 08 $48 +$8 +18%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $2,467 −$891 -36%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 07 $6,301 +$415 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $8,143 +$1,454 +18%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 06 $16,720 +$283 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 05 $4,581 −$4 -0%
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? May 03 $1,056 +$24 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 02 $150 −$150 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $3,071 +$1,560 +51%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $3,536 +$2,867 +81%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $574 +$57 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $105 +$120 +114%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Apr 27 $346 +$16 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $9,122 −$9,122 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 25 $496 −$112 -23%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 25 $422 −$304 -72%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $4,269 +$1,279 +30%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Apr 23 $1,640 +$65 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $3,644 −$206 -6%
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $200 +$212 +106%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 16 $800 −$30 -4%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $5,018 +$248 +5%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Apr 15 $2,886 +$1,914 +66%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Apr 12 $930 $0 +0%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 11 $672 −$351 -52%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 11 $3,465 −$1,186 -34%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 11 $1,872 +$126 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 11 $172 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 64% −$12,434
other 17% −$6,437
politics 8% −$1,389
sports 8% −$239
culture 3% +$146
crypto 0% +$54
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $428 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $19 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $702 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $168 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $396 36h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 27¢ $238 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 27¢ $12 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 27¢ $37 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 27¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $410 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $372 4d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,840 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.3% -2.0% 100% 0% -3.1%
≤30d 17 -31.0% -37.6% 47% 24% -47.9%
≤90d 95 -12.0% -20.4% 53% 31% -16.7%
all 112 -9.4% -18.1% 54% 33% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 33% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 20% -24.0%
15% -33.1% 14% -31.3%
20% -39.6% 12% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,314.67 · official $23,314.95 (match) · 2071 history records