Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x943d…167e crypto 22 markets active 6d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-21%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$25
sports 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.6% -26.3% 60% 50% -26.5%
≤30d 21 -22.4% -29.8% 57% 48% -28.7%
≤90d 22 -26.0% -33.0% 55% 45% -32.3%
all 22 -26.0% -33.0% 55% 45% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 45% -32.3%
10% -39.4% 36% -38.8%
15% -45.3% 14% -44.7%
20% -50.6% 9% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage24d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records