Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x943e…0c66 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$133 (-12%) realized −$220 · open +$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$81
14 days−$51
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$245
other 45% +$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -49.7% -54.5% 20% 20% -33.1%
≤30d 9 -34.6% -40.8% 33% 33% -28.9%
≤90d 9 -34.6% -40.8% 33% 33% -28.9%
all 9 -34.6% -40.8% 33% 33% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 33% -28.9%
10% -46.5% 33% -35.7%
15% -51.6% 33% -41.9%
20% -56.4% 22% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$72 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized−$220
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage16d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $231 $300 +$69 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $92 +$139 +152%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$45 +44%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $202 −$200 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $101 +$95 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $233 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $231 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $92 7h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 29h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 29h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 29h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $146 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $202 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 51¢ $101 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.35 · official $422.67 (match) · 30 history records