Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
94 0x943e…3746 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$44
sports 21% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 33% +2.9%
≤30d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 33% +2.9%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 33% +2.9%
all 9 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 33% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 33% +2.9%
10% -17.4% 33% -7.0%
15% -25.4% 33% -15.9%
20% -32.7% 33% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$20 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$27 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$69 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records