Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9441…be7b crypto 745 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$691 (-3%) realized −$1,267 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%418W / 323L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$133
14 days−$3,175
30 days−$1,200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,199
politics 0% −$19
culture 0% −$60
world 0% +$44
other 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -1.8% -11.1% 53% 47% -13.2%
≤30d 736 -2.9% -12.2% 57% 54% -14.3%
≤90d 738 -3.2% -12.4% 57% 54% -14.5%
all 741 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 53% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 53% -14.5%
10% -20.8% 49% -22.7%
15% -28.4% 40% -30.2%
20% -35.5% 28% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$1,267
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses418 / 323
Open positions4
Markets (closed)741 / 745
History coverage116d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 741 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 48¢ 64¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 48¢ 36¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-23%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 79¢ 46¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-42%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$26 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$16 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$18 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$28 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $56 −$13 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$16 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $70 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $71 +$48 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$22 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $91 −$68 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $130 −$67 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $123 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $65 +$29 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $48 +$19 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$28 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$25 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$11 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $94 +$36 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $112 +$39 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$23 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$28 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $108 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$55 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $143 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$34 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $164 −$37 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.73 · official $72.82 (match) · 2724 history records