Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9444…e534 sports 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$3
sports 26% −$2
other 23% −$2
crypto 10% −$1
economics 6% −$1
culture 6% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 161 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 161
History coverage169d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $49 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 12 $167 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 12 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 10 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 10 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 10 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 09 $115 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 09 $182 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 09 $56 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $4 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 09 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $54 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $55 5h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $56 12d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $57 12d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 25d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 25d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 36d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 38d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $56 131d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $57 131d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $50 131d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $50 131d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $52 131d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $52 131d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $54 131d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $54 131d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $52 131d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $52 131d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL No 96¢ $49 131d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 96¢ $50 131d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $1 131d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL No 96¢ $1 131d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 131d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 96¢ $1 131d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $1 131d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 131d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 131d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 131d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $55 131d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $55 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 488 history records