Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9444…1201 other 265 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 24% −$23
politics 7% −$14
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 264 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)264 / 265
History coverage142d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $201 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $388 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $680 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $239 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $392 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $557 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $433 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $853 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $136 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $632 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $266 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $452 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $728 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $1,347 −$3 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $221 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $147 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $378 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $244 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 4h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 8h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 9h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 15h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 17h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 21h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 23h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 30h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 32h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 42h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 43h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 45h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 46h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.70 · official $54.70 (match) · 1478 history records