Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9445…5a2a politics 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,992 (-2%) realized −$1,992 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 95L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,166per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$13
14 days−$52
30 days−$1,915
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$131
politics 40% −$60
sports 7% −$1,843
economics 3% −$3
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 -15.6% -23.6% 12% 5% -15.7%
≤90d 106 -7.1% -15.9% 10% 6% -11.0%
all 106 -7.1% -15.9% 10% 6% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 6% -11.0%
10% -24.0% 6% -19.5%
15% -31.3% 5% -27.3%
20% -38.1% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$1,513) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,992
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,166
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $702 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $820 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,958 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $533 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 14 $163 +$1 +1%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $507 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $500 −$1 -0%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $677 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $3,148 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $67 +$29 +44%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $592 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $192 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $370 +$1 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $287 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $235 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $285 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $302 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,898 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,400 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $303 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 25 $1,544 −$1,544 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 20 $26 +$24 +90%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2,644 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $2,771 −$3 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,282 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,579 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $94 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $410 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $410 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $620 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $621 7h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $487 22h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $488 25h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $587 27h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $588 28h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $485 28h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $486 32h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $473 47h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $473 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $533 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $533 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $475 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $476 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $507 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $163 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $507 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $499 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 6d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $471 6d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $472 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $517 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $518 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $644 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $645 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $676 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records