Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9445…d90c sports 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%17W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$52
14 days−$56
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$51
crypto 11% −$63
other 3% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -21.3% -28.8% 30% 27% -12.5%
≤30d 58 -27.5% -34.4% 29% 26% -15.3%
≤90d 60 -28.5% -35.3% 28% 25% -15.5%
all 60 -28.5% -35.3% 28% 25% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 25% -15.5%
10% -41.5% 22% -23.6%
15% -47.1% 17% -31.0%
20% -52.3% 17% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses17 / 43
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage34d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+68%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Gentle Mates 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $94 −$35 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $161 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$5 -9%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $44 +$41 +92%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $90 −$40 -44%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $53 −$13 -24%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +84%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $73 +$10 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$13 -80%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $200 −$15 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $177 +$16 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $53 +$43 +81%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $30 −$21 -72%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $23 +$45 +194%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$17 +69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$7 +79%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $7 −$2 -28%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $44 −$4 -10%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $13 +$4 +31%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 +$6 +89%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $8 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $24 −$6 -24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $9 −$3 -39%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $9 −$1 -6%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 $0 -5%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $14 −$6 -47%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $8 −$1 -8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $13 −$13 -99%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $6 +$7 +128%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe S May 31 $2 +$2 +139%
Counter-Strike: CarritoSpain vs The Last Resort (BO3) - Exort Series M May 31 $3 −$1 -42%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $8 −$5 -63%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $8 +$13 +168%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi May 24 $2 $0 +24%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $34 +$10 +29%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 41¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL HyperSpirit 4¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 89¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 10¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Ground Zero 100¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 88¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 61¢ $63 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL HyperSpirit 40¢ $63 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 52¢ $85 2h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series SELL DXA Esports 45¢ $85 2h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY DXA Esports 23¢ $44 3h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Ground Zero 61¢ $44 3h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 67¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 12¢ $50 3h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 20¢ $90 3h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MARKandLARRY 28¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MARKandLARRY 35¢ $53 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner SELL HyperSpirit 6¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records