Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
94 0x9447…ebcd world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+2%) realized +$48 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$44
world 30% −$3
other 18% +$1
politics 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 6 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 0% -7.7%
all 6 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 0% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 0% -7.7%
10% -16.8% 0% -16.5%
15% -24.9% 0% -24.6%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×13.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.88 per $1 lost it wins $26.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage84d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $386 $384 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Jun 19 $239 −$1 -0%
Spread: Casa Pia AC (-2.5) May 06 $471 +$24 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 03 $467 +$1 +0%
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5) Apr 20 $390 +$20 +5%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 19 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $203 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.88 · official $383.88 (match) · 18 history records