Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
94 0x9449…b5b3 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$610 (-34%) realized −$612 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$442
politics 25% $0
economics 7% −$76
other 4% −$8
crypto 3% −$46
sports 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-67.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.5% -6.4% 100% 0% -6.4%
≤30d 7 -85.2% -86.6% 14% 0% -53.4%
≤90d 14 -61.0% -64.7% 14% 7% -23.4%
all 31 -64.6% -67.9% 16% 10% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.9% 10% -41.5%
10% -71.0% 10% -47.1%
15% -73.8% 6% -52.2%
20% -76.4% 3% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$35 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$612
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage172d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $56 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $82 −$51 -62%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $59 +$180 +304%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12? Mar 09 $79 +$39 +49%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? Mar 08 $79 −$7 -9%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 06 $376 +$24 +6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $122 +$38 +31%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $368 −$368 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 21 $64 −$16 -26%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026? Jan 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026? Jan 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026? Jan 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jan 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%? Jan 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $57 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 5¢ $57 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 15d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 15d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 15d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 15d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 15d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 15d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $56 66d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $32 76d
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 77d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 79d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 79d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 79d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 79d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 79d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $68 79d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 79d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 94¢ $170 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 38¢ $68 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 16¢ $59 83d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 113d
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 113d
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 113d
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 113d
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 113d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 113d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? SELL Yes 49¢ $72 113d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? BUY Yes 54¢ $79 113d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12? BUY Yes 67¢ $79 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.67 · official $57.67 (match) · 137 history records