Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

94 0x944b…754f other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$74 (+20%) realized +$74 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$63per market

Trades / day10.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+10.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+21.7%	+10.1%	80%	80%	+27.4%
≤30d	5	+21.7%	+10.1%	80%	80%	+27.4%
≤90d	5	+21.7%	+10.1%	80%	80%	+27.4%
all	5	+21.7%	+10.1%	80%	80%	+27.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.1%	80%	+27.4%
10%	-0.4%	60%	+15.2%
15%	-10.0%	40%	+4.1%
20%	-18.8%	40%	-6.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +41% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$20 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.26 per $1 lost it wins $8.26

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized+$74

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$63

Trades / day10.6

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	56¢	56¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$72	+$77	+108%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$92	+$51	+56%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$101	+$15	+15%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$71	+$22	+31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$149	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	41¢	$21	3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$20	10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$92	10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$116	10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	84¢	$101	10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$20	16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$93	24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$20	26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	75¢	$51	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.82 · official $19.82 (match) · 12 history records