trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 24 | -10.5% | -19.0% | 71% | 17% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.0% | 17% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -26.8% | 4% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -33.9% | 4% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -40.4% | 4% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $35 | $35 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $13 | $13 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $11 | $11 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 93¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs vs. Ducks | Mar 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? | Mar 31 | $124 | +$1 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 12 | $121 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | Feb 12 | $116 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Jan 21 | $2 | $0 | +14% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 15 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft | Dec 15 | $119 | +$2 | +2% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27? | Nov 11 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? | Nov 11 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 11 | $222 | +$1 | +0% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24? | Oct 27 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? | Oct 25 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? | Oct 24 | $4 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | Oct 24 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 20? | Oct 21 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| BNB Up or Down on October 20? | Oct 20 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? | Oct 20 | $203 | $0 | -0% |
| Bitcoin all time high by October 31? | Oct 20 | $5 | +$1 | +15% |
| Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | Oct 04 | $5 | +$1 | +19% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Build Wars: Webflow vs. Lovable | Mar 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | Mar 21 | $3 | $0 | +8% |
| Suns vs. Nets | Jan 23 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? | Jan 23 | $11 | +$9 | +75% |